Concerned about whether the rebar peak season can be sustained

 　　It is now mid-November, and the spot market is still showing peak season characteristics, which validates the view that we have repeatedly talked about the peak season delay. "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is the traditional peak season for consumption, but the spot market in September this year was "not busy". We proposed that the peak season demand was postponed to October and November.

　　However, what needs attention is the sustainability of peak season demand. With reference to previous years, demand will decline after mid-to-late November. According to the predictions of relevant state agencies, the cold air activities affecting our country are frequent and strong this winter, and a wide range of low-temperature rain and snow may occur in northern my country. The low temperature and rain and snow in the northern region mean the loss of construction conditions, but also a decline in the demand for rebar. According to the weather forecast, there will be a large-scale cooling in the second half of this week.

　　The core factor pushing up the price of rebar is strong demand. Once the demand weakens, the price peaking and falling will be a high probability event.

　　Supply pressure still needs to be guarded

　　In addition, supply pressure remains the primary negative factor to beware of. Supply pressure comes from domestic resource supply and the conversion of import and export resources.

　　The domestic resource supply can be analyzed from two perspectives: policy and profit. This year's fall and winter production restriction policy has a very limited impact on rebar output; the recent increase in steel prices has significantly improved corporate production profits, which will increase corporate production enthusiasm.

　　In terms of the transformation of import and export resources, the main reasons are the decrease in exports and the increase in imports. Imports are divided into two parts: steel imports and billet imports. The latest customs data show that from January to October, my country's steel exports decreased by 10.665 million tons year-on-year, steel imports increased by 7.225 million tons year-on-year, and imported steel billets increased by about 12.62 million tons. Overall, domestic steel supply increased by more than 30 million tons.

　　In short, it is recommended that investors who hold long orders of rebar futures gradually stop profit.

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